I'll skip my usual praise other than to say it's remarkable to me how you consistently continue the very high standard you've established in The Field Guide.
The problems surrounding changes in the atmospheric and oceanic transport systems are becoming clearer. The swirling patterns are becoming clearer, the global plant and animal and microbial movements, migrations and spreads are responding and changing.
We already are in a new world and better love it now, for rapidly it will be replaced by yet another. I think it likely, very likely the AMOC collapses in the next thirty years. Another tipping point, tipped. It is again almost certain we will see another collapse- this in the Amazonian forest, our planet's greatest land based carbon sequestration sink- another catastrophe.
Sudden climate crashes have occurred many times in the past-there is no rational reason to suppose we're now immune. A Younger Dryas seems likely for Europe. And if so Putin will be the least of its worries. Or maybe not..?
What figuratively keeps me up at night is the worry that some people will take this situation seriously enough to take decisive action. A good thing, right? No, a catastrophic thing if those people are authoritarian rulers of powerful nation states that listen to their scientists and then decide to preemptively position their own countries for the now probable coming turmoil and upheaval. And they choose violence.
Thank you, Michael. You've packed a lot in here. There are so many moving pieces, all interacting (as the AMOC demonstrates), that all we can really say about the future is that we're determining much of it by our actions and inaction, and that it will likely be more chaotic than we're currently imagining. The more we act, though, the more chaos we can prevent. I think. And yes, the more chaos, the more room for authoritarian politics to poison the moment and movement.
One image I had while writing this piece was of Europeans, frozen out of home, migrating across the Mediterranean... Not a likely scenario, but one that's interesting to contemplate, no?
Indeed! I remember that disaster movie, the Day After Tomorrow, where Americans, including the government had to flee an iced over America south to a still ice-free Mexico. Lucky for us they treated our wave of immigrants better than we have treated theirs! The movie seems oddly prescient now.
Michael has said it well. I'll only add that this post is another example of why I'm so grateful that you're out in the world thinking and writing, and why I'm proud to be a paying subscriber.
That might be a few decades, Katherine, if by necessary you mean getting enough people to pay attention... Joking aside, thanks as always for your support. It does make the long hours shorter.
To err on the side of caution is common sense. But it seems we humans are stuck in hunter/gatherer mind mode where the main focus is short term, day to day survival after living that way for hundreds of thousands of years. Yet you would think after 7-10,000 years post Agricultural revolution, human societies would think more long term-meaning plenty of time to write sonatas and figure out how to split the atom, but not enough to make better decisions about cleaner energy sources? I think greed is at the core of all of biggest issues facing humanity. Just follow the money as they say. Always about more, more, more for the rich elite 1%, who's egos and sense of self worth comes from acquiring more wealth than the other 1%ers/billionaires - He with the most toys wins materialism mentalities have brought us and Mother Nature herself to the brink of destruction of life as know it. And if she goes down - we go down with her. Dirty CO2 releasing, toxic chemical creating and plastic nightmare product - Oil (and coal) runs and pollutes the world since the Western Industrial Revolution a couple hundred years ago. Whether the micro plastics in our blood streams or the wars in the Middle East - all ties into our dependence on oil. What's ironic is that some of the first combustion engines ran on peanut oil! If only scenario! Greed is human's hubris and unless we are all ready to sacrifice a little and make the switch to cleaner energies ASAP - 25-30 million US citizens (mostly coastal) will be living in Tent Cities by the end of this century. I wrote a podcast play about it (link below). It may already be too late but I believe in divine intervention and that God does heal earth and will nudge history in our direction - if and only if the majority of humans make some good faith effort to change their behaviors to more sustainable ones where less is more ASAP.
Thanks for all this, Christopher. I'll only add that some of the earliest vehicles were electric, too. And in terms of what we haven't learned, it's probably worth thinking about what we've forgotten too. I try to be careful not to map human possibility (empathy, especially) according to the current version of modern culture. There have been and still are plenty of cultures (largely indigenous) that serve as a model. It's just that they've largely been steamrolled by this powerful adolescent capital-powered experiment. Let's do what we can to retire the steamroller and bring back the empathy.
Agree. Have your read David Graeber's & Wengrow's last masterwork of successful, alternative egalitarian societies throughout world history called "The Dawn of Everything"? It was very eye opening to Native people's influence on the European Enlightenment and other possibilities for better societies that have already happened!
I just looked it up. It's new to me, and looks really fascinating. Thanks for the tip. I could use some good reading to shake up what I was taught about human history.
Thanks for this. It is indeed bizarre, watching the society we live in ignore the science and keep singing to the 19th century 'endless GDP growth' songbook.
Polls consistently show that a majority of citizens in multiple nations are concerned or very concerned about climate disruption, yet that does not seem to translate into effective action - either personally (stop flying, cut ICE driving) or politically (lobby, make submissions, protest, vote wisely). I wonder how we change that?
Thanks, Graham. Lots of ways to answer that question, I guess, but I think they all meet at the idea of giving more power to the rational majority of citizens and less power to the profit-driven corporate AIs and their pocketed regulators. I think the personal is shifting, if too slowly, and will continue to shift when/if we shift the top-down stuff. That gets to the idea of good tipping points, which are as much at play here as the ones we fear, like an AMOC shutdown.
As an aside, are you in Christchurch? I see Otautahi in your bio. That city was a favorite place in the world for me for many years.
Yes, in Otautahi/Christchurch, and part of the local 350 team. We run a number of activities aimed at increasing public awareness, which seems to be a necessary precondition for genuine political change . :)
Your link to Biden's conservation wins reminded me of this potentially huge win.
Comments are closed, but a decision from Secretary Haaland is due sometime this summer. Keep your fingers crossed.
"These 28 million acres have been protected from industrial development for 50 years, beginning under Section 17(D)(1) of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. The Trump Administration tried to revoke protections and open these public lands up for private industrialization. That attempt was legally flawed. When it came into office, one of the Biden Administration's first actions was pausing those orders to examine the impacts of the opening of these lands to industrial development."
Absolutely, Patrick. I wish everyone was aware of how much effort the administration has put into reversing Trump's policies as well as creating new protections. From my perspective it's bare minimum but in comparison to the alternatives, including previous Democratic administrations, there's a ton of good work being done.
To err on the side of caution is common sense. But it seems we humans are stuck in hunter/gatherer mind mode where the main focus is short term, day to day survival after living that way for hundreds of thousands of years. Yet you would think after 7-10,000 years post Agricultural revolution, human societies would think more long term-meaning plenty of time to write sonatas and figure out how to split the atom, but not enough to make better decisions about cleaner energy sources? I think greed is at the core of all of biggest issues facing humanity. Just follow the money as they say. Always about more, more, more for the rich elite 1%, who's egos and sense of self worth comes from acquiring more wealth than the other 1%ers/billionaires - He with the most toys wins materialism mentalities have brought us and Mother Nature herself to the brink of destruction of life as know it. And if she goes down - we go down with her. Dirty CO2 releasing, toxic chemical creating and plastic nightmare product - Oil (and coal) runs and pollutes the world since the Western Industrial Revolution a couple hundred years ago. Whether the micro plastics in our blood streams or the wars in the Middle East - all ties into our dependence on oil. What's ironic is that some of the first combustion engines ran on peanut oil! If only scenario! Greed is human's hubris and unless we are all ready to sacrifice a little and make the switch to cleaner energies ASAP - 25-30 million US citizens (mostly coastal) will be living in Tent Cities by the end of this century. I wrote a podcast play about it (link below). It may already be too late but I believe in divine intervention and that God does heal earth and will nudge history in our direction - if and only if the majority of humans make some effort to change their behaviors to more sustainable ones where less is more ASAP.
We are simpatico, brother. I write about the same issues. Keep going. Climate change is here and now. If collapse happens, which grows more likely every day, the speed with which it will destroy humanity will be stunning.
Everything about this time is stunning, Geoffrey, though it's easy to forget it. Just the basic truth that human history (the doings of a short-lived ape) is now shaping geologic history, and that every species' fate is tied to our own, is boggling. Thanks for the comment.
I'll skip my usual praise other than to say it's remarkable to me how you consistently continue the very high standard you've established in The Field Guide.
The problems surrounding changes in the atmospheric and oceanic transport systems are becoming clearer. The swirling patterns are becoming clearer, the global plant and animal and microbial movements, migrations and spreads are responding and changing.
We already are in a new world and better love it now, for rapidly it will be replaced by yet another. I think it likely, very likely the AMOC collapses in the next thirty years. Another tipping point, tipped. It is again almost certain we will see another collapse- this in the Amazonian forest, our planet's greatest land based carbon sequestration sink- another catastrophe.
Sudden climate crashes have occurred many times in the past-there is no rational reason to suppose we're now immune. A Younger Dryas seems likely for Europe. And if so Putin will be the least of its worries. Or maybe not..?
What figuratively keeps me up at night is the worry that some people will take this situation seriously enough to take decisive action. A good thing, right? No, a catastrophic thing if those people are authoritarian rulers of powerful nation states that listen to their scientists and then decide to preemptively position their own countries for the now probable coming turmoil and upheaval. And they choose violence.
Thank you, Michael. You've packed a lot in here. There are so many moving pieces, all interacting (as the AMOC demonstrates), that all we can really say about the future is that we're determining much of it by our actions and inaction, and that it will likely be more chaotic than we're currently imagining. The more we act, though, the more chaos we can prevent. I think. And yes, the more chaos, the more room for authoritarian politics to poison the moment and movement.
One image I had while writing this piece was of Europeans, frozen out of home, migrating across the Mediterranean... Not a likely scenario, but one that's interesting to contemplate, no?
Indeed! I remember that disaster movie, the Day After Tomorrow, where Americans, including the government had to flee an iced over America south to a still ice-free Mexico. Lucky for us they treated our wave of immigrants better than we have treated theirs! The movie seems oddly prescient now.
That movie was also based (loosely...) on the idea of the AMOC shutting down...
Michael has said it well. I'll only add that this post is another example of why I'm so grateful that you're out in the world thinking and writing, and why I'm proud to be a paying subscriber.
That's very kind of you to say, Bryan. I feel much the same about your work, and your twin gifts as naturalist and writer.
Jason, this is the essay I will restack until it is no longer necessary. 🌱
That might be a few decades, Katherine, if by necessary you mean getting enough people to pay attention... Joking aside, thanks as always for your support. It does make the long hours shorter.
To err on the side of caution is common sense. But it seems we humans are stuck in hunter/gatherer mind mode where the main focus is short term, day to day survival after living that way for hundreds of thousands of years. Yet you would think after 7-10,000 years post Agricultural revolution, human societies would think more long term-meaning plenty of time to write sonatas and figure out how to split the atom, but not enough to make better decisions about cleaner energy sources? I think greed is at the core of all of biggest issues facing humanity. Just follow the money as they say. Always about more, more, more for the rich elite 1%, who's egos and sense of self worth comes from acquiring more wealth than the other 1%ers/billionaires - He with the most toys wins materialism mentalities have brought us and Mother Nature herself to the brink of destruction of life as know it. And if she goes down - we go down with her. Dirty CO2 releasing, toxic chemical creating and plastic nightmare product - Oil (and coal) runs and pollutes the world since the Western Industrial Revolution a couple hundred years ago. Whether the micro plastics in our blood streams or the wars in the Middle East - all ties into our dependence on oil. What's ironic is that some of the first combustion engines ran on peanut oil! If only scenario! Greed is human's hubris and unless we are all ready to sacrifice a little and make the switch to cleaner energies ASAP - 25-30 million US citizens (mostly coastal) will be living in Tent Cities by the end of this century. I wrote a podcast play about it (link below). It may already be too late but I believe in divine intervention and that God does heal earth and will nudge history in our direction - if and only if the majority of humans make some good faith effort to change their behaviors to more sustainable ones where less is more ASAP.
https://tentcityacautionarytale.blogspot.com/
Thanks for all this, Christopher. I'll only add that some of the earliest vehicles were electric, too. And in terms of what we haven't learned, it's probably worth thinking about what we've forgotten too. I try to be careful not to map human possibility (empathy, especially) according to the current version of modern culture. There have been and still are plenty of cultures (largely indigenous) that serve as a model. It's just that they've largely been steamrolled by this powerful adolescent capital-powered experiment. Let's do what we can to retire the steamroller and bring back the empathy.
Agree. Have your read David Graeber's & Wengrow's last masterwork of successful, alternative egalitarian societies throughout world history called "The Dawn of Everything"? It was very eye opening to Native people's influence on the European Enlightenment and other possibilities for better societies that have already happened!
I just looked it up. It's new to me, and looks really fascinating. Thanks for the tip. I could use some good reading to shake up what I was taught about human history.
Greed is the incurable disease, and Power is the asymptomatic carrier.
Thanks for this. It is indeed bizarre, watching the society we live in ignore the science and keep singing to the 19th century 'endless GDP growth' songbook.
Polls consistently show that a majority of citizens in multiple nations are concerned or very concerned about climate disruption, yet that does not seem to translate into effective action - either personally (stop flying, cut ICE driving) or politically (lobby, make submissions, protest, vote wisely). I wonder how we change that?
Thanks, Graham. Lots of ways to answer that question, I guess, but I think they all meet at the idea of giving more power to the rational majority of citizens and less power to the profit-driven corporate AIs and their pocketed regulators. I think the personal is shifting, if too slowly, and will continue to shift when/if we shift the top-down stuff. That gets to the idea of good tipping points, which are as much at play here as the ones we fear, like an AMOC shutdown.
As an aside, are you in Christchurch? I see Otautahi in your bio. That city was a favorite place in the world for me for many years.
Yes, in Otautahi/Christchurch, and part of the local 350 team. We run a number of activities aimed at increasing public awareness, which seems to be a necessary precondition for genuine political change . :)
Indeed. I reckon that makes you one of those empowered rational citizens... Thanks for your good work.
Jason,
Your link to Biden's conservation wins reminded me of this potentially huge win.
Comments are closed, but a decision from Secretary Haaland is due sometime this summer. Keep your fingers crossed.
"These 28 million acres have been protected from industrial development for 50 years, beginning under Section 17(D)(1) of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act. The Trump Administration tried to revoke protections and open these public lands up for private industrialization. That attempt was legally flawed. When it came into office, one of the Biden Administration's first actions was pausing those orders to examine the impacts of the opening of these lands to industrial development."
From <https://www.alaskalands.org/press-releases/conservation-groups-subsistence-users-sportsmen-and-businesses-welcome-opportunity-to-prioritize-climate-resilience-subsistence-outdoor-recreation-public-use-on-alaska-blm-lands>
Absolutely, Patrick. I wish everyone was aware of how much effort the administration has put into reversing Trump's policies as well as creating new protections. From my perspective it's bare minimum but in comparison to the alternatives, including previous Democratic administrations, there's a ton of good work being done.
Hard to imagine 28 million acres, isn't it?
To err on the side of caution is common sense. But it seems we humans are stuck in hunter/gatherer mind mode where the main focus is short term, day to day survival after living that way for hundreds of thousands of years. Yet you would think after 7-10,000 years post Agricultural revolution, human societies would think more long term-meaning plenty of time to write sonatas and figure out how to split the atom, but not enough to make better decisions about cleaner energy sources? I think greed is at the core of all of biggest issues facing humanity. Just follow the money as they say. Always about more, more, more for the rich elite 1%, who's egos and sense of self worth comes from acquiring more wealth than the other 1%ers/billionaires - He with the most toys wins materialism mentalities have brought us and Mother Nature herself to the brink of destruction of life as know it. And if she goes down - we go down with her. Dirty CO2 releasing, toxic chemical creating and plastic nightmare product - Oil (and coal) runs and pollutes the world since the Western Industrial Revolution a couple hundred years ago. Whether the micro plastics in our blood streams or the wars in the Middle East - all ties into our dependence on oil. What's ironic is that some of the first combustion engines ran on peanut oil! If only scenario! Greed is human's hubris and unless we are all ready to sacrifice a little and make the switch to cleaner energies ASAP - 25-30 million US citizens (mostly coastal) will be living in Tent Cities by the end of this century. I wrote a podcast play about it (link below). It may already be too late but I believe in divine intervention and that God does heal earth and will nudge history in our direction - if and only if the majority of humans make some effort to change their behaviors to more sustainable ones where less is more ASAP.
https://tentcityacautionarytale.blogspot.com/
We are simpatico, brother. I write about the same issues. Keep going. Climate change is here and now. If collapse happens, which grows more likely every day, the speed with which it will destroy humanity will be stunning.
Everything about this time is stunning, Geoffrey, though it's easy to forget it. Just the basic truth that human history (the doings of a short-lived ape) is now shaping geologic history, and that every species' fate is tied to our own, is boggling. Thanks for the comment.
Jason thank you for the hard work and the hard truths you share with us. And how you keep hope alive.
Thank you, Susan. I'm trying to do my little piece here.
I'm going to do more of a dive into this (forgive the pun). Thanks 🙏